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For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a firm position concerning Ukraine. Following making warnings of "severe consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin continued obstructing ceasefire talks, the former president ultimately introduced major penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly affected Putin's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

But, via his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, which was drafted by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or European input, Trump has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Invasion

This proposal would essentially benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's democracy in danger. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", much of the proposal in reality undermine that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, implying ceding Putin a part of Ukraine's land will satisfy the leader. However, Russia's invasion is not only about controlling a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to weaken it so it stops serves as an appealing example for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that his increasing dictatorship denies them.

Border Concessions

While keeping in place the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would require the nation to abandon all of Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been unable to occupy in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this surrender would render Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously undermined.

The area is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a critical obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed route to the capital should he subsequently opt to renew the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Then, in a move that would make additional conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would force the nation to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, the plan sets no similar constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as extremists, Trump's plan states: "All Nazi doctrine and practices must be rejected and prohibited." As if to underscore this element, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no obligation that Putin endanger his regime by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its position of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has breached comparable agreements in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a return of seized land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community believe this commitment now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international protection assurances. Although the plan promises a "decisive coordinated defense action" if Russia resume its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics include unclear to concerning. The initiative would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from deploying troops on the nation's land, thus preventing the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from rebuilding his diminished troops, rearming, and attacking again.

International Reaction

A separate side agreement according to sources would offer the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and sustained aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. But in contrast to a capable national defense – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against additional invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, including Trump, to act through arms to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not