A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
