Everyday Murders in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The mean figure of everyday killings monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government data. However, security experts have warned that homicide figures could fail to indicate enhanced national safety.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we’ve had in these months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent times. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the US. However, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly steeper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety analysts warned that relying on murder statistics to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is notably true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and think: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for estimating the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday killings was also problematic because it could mask days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still grappling with extreme violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters protested in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.