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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.